DECISION ANALYSIS

DECISION ANALYSIS1. GoalsUtilize the decision-making models in a risky contextApply decision-making methods to complex choices11. Description of the AssignmentEach student elaborates a situation that illustrates a real or fictional businessproblem, where the student applies an adequate decision process.Each student will have to prepare a paper and present it to the rest ofthe class,in an 8 to 10 minutes session.The paper should have to contain at least three and not more than four pages,including the cover page [Template].Deadlines. The paper should be submitted not later than Sunday the 6th of]uly2014 at 1 p.m. via Moodle. Presentations will be held on Monday the 7th of]uly2014 from 1 p.m. to 1.30 p.m. [normal class time).111. Basic RulesProblem analysis (50%), document quality (30%), and presentation(20%) will be evaluated.It?s an oral presentation; electronic presentation is not necessary.The assignment consists basically in problem analysisAny reference or source of readings must be indicated in the paperAny problem, situation or case already analysed, in particular thosepublically available in Internet for example, cannot be imported andpresented as the assignment for this course.IV. Methodology and ProcessThe student can use suitable approach or methods to analyse the problem. Forinspiration, the student is allowed to use Examples and Exercises studied in classor in the Textbook.The problem can be a simple one, but it must show students? analysis work. Noneed to use all methods!Ios? Lamas-Valverde, 2015Business SchoolSome Rules of ProbabilityBasics of Probabilities ? conditional Probability ? When Events Are Not IndependentFrom both equivalent equations of the the general multiplication rulewe can infer an important rule including conditional probabilities: P(A I B)?P(B)P

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