Use augmented Dickey-Fuller tests to determine whether your chosen series is a unit root process.

Use augmented Dickey-Fuller tests to determine whether your chosen series is a unitroot process. Transform and re-test as appropriate to determine the order ofintegration.2-Define and estimate the ACF and PACF for your stationary time series (i.e. afterdifferencing your data if appropriate). (10 mark)3-Select the most appropriate ARIMA time series model for your data on the basis ofACF and PACF plots and appropriate experimentation. (40 mark)4-Withhold ten per cent of the most recent data and re-estimate two of the equationsyou estimated in (3). Using the re-estimated equations calculate forecasts (for thewithheld data) for each model using Excel. Judge which forecasts are ?best? using acriterion such as RMSE (30 mark ).

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